Star Trek's Biggest Prediction For 2024: Irish Unification Explained
You might have seen word going around about the Irish Unification of 2024. No, don't worry, you didn't miss a bombshell news story; people are floating a line of dialogue from what's been called the most controversial episode of "Star Trek: The Next Generation" — "The High Ground" (season 3, episode 12).
In this episode, the Enterprise visits Rutia IV. The planet's western continent, ruled by its eastern neighbor, is home to the terrorist group the Ansata, who fight for self-determination. Around 20 minutes into the episode, Data (Brent Spiner) asks Captain Picard (Patrick Stewart) about the moral arguments for terrorism, pointing to times when violence has affected political change.
Data lists three occasions: Mexican independence from Spain, the Kenzie Rebellion, and the Irish Unification of 2024. The first one is real history, the second is fictional, and the third is imagined but based on reality.
To be clear; the island of Ireland is divided between two governments. The Republic of Ireland, made up of 26 counties, is an autonomous state. The six counties of Northern Ireland remain part of the United Kingdom. The still-unresolved struggle for a united, self-governing Ireland consisting of all 32 counties is a lingering scar of British dominion and their lasting influence on the Emerald Isle.
Will Ireland be a whole nation once again by 2024's end, or will this prediction age like some of the other future forecasts in "Star Trek"? For example, see how "Space Seed" (aired in 1967) claimed humanity fought the Eugenics Wars against superhuman overlords ... in the 1990s.
Come Out, Ye Black and Tans
There is far too much history to discuss in detail here (800 years' worth, in fact), but long story short, Ireland has often been a colonial subject of Great Britain. The Catholic/Protestant divide in Ireland? That goes back to English settlers, who were gifted stolen plantations in the 17th century and brought the English crown's religion with them.
Like most of their colonial subjects, Britain treated Ireland brutally (the Potato "famine" of the 19th century was not the result of a blight but British thievery). But by the early 20th century, armed rebellion by the native Irish was too much to withstand. The Anglo-Irish Treaty, signed on December 6, 1921, and effective the following year, finally restored Ireland's self-governance — well, 26 counties of it, since the North was partitioned. This kicked off the 1922-1923 Irish Civil War, fought between different Irish Republican factions who were split on whether the Treaty was a compromise or a betrayal.
The Irish diaspora (myself included, I'll admit) often buy into the romantic and anti-colonial notions of a United Ireland (especially since we're far away from the violence back at home). But it's messier than that; Northern Ireland itself is divided, with politics and religion tending to go hand-in-hand in drawing the lines of this split. There were Catholic Republicans in Northern Ireland, but the majority of the population during the 20th century were Protestant Unionists who felt equal heritage and loyalty to Britain as they did to Ireland. It's hard to "free" subjects who aren't being held against their will.
Na Trioblóidí
From the 1960s to the 1990s, Northern Ireland was the site of "The Troubles" (Na Trioblóidí), or the insurrectionist war waged by the Provisional Irish Republican Army — members were generally Catholics who faced enduring discrimination in the North. The most common weapon? Bombs. (For a detailed accounting of this period, read Patrick Radden Keefe's "Say Nothing.")
So, "The Irish Unification of 2024" is a background detail in "The High Ground", but it's not accidental. The episode's writer, Melinda M. Snodgrass, recently said on Twitter it was mentioned to reinforce the idea that Earth itself had united in the future of "Star Trek". Moreover, the episode setting invokes Northern Ireland; rebels fighting for autonomy see themselves as heroic, while their enemies call them terrorists. The episode even opens with a bombing in a public square.
The episode aired in 1990 when the Troubles were ongoing and topical. The line implies that the Troubles/armed struggle lasted into the 2020s until the IRA got the U.K. to concede the territory to the Republic of Ireland.
However, reality was not so violent. In the 1980s, the Sinn Féin party (meaning We Ourselves, then led by Irish Republican leader Gerry Adams) refocused on electoral politics. This culminated in the Good Friday Agreement between the British and Irish governments, signed in 1998. Under the agreement, Northern Ireland was still part of the U.K., but citizens could claim dual citizenship and the North would be self-governed (the new Northern Irish Assembly required power-sharing to maintain this balance). Moreover, if Northern Ireland chooses to leave the U.K. by referendum, they are allowed to do so.
The violence stopped, and the border dividing Ireland grew soft, allowing a spiritual reunion, if not an official one.
Reunification
Irish Unification hasn't been abandoned — and there's growing political will for it. In the 2022 elections, Sinn Féin won a majority in the Northern Ireland Assembly for the first time ever (though a government hasn't been formed thanks to the Democratic Unionist Party not sharing power).
There's also growing support for reunification among Northern Irish youths. Irish actor Cillian Murphy, who starred in last year's "Oppenheimer," said in 2020, "[A United Ireland] will definitely happen in my lifetime. It will take compromise on both sides. But there will be a referendum."
The real impetus, though, is Brexit, the 2016 referendum where Britain voted to leave the European Union. Thus, a hard border has been reinstituted between the U.K. and EU countries. The problem? The Republic of Ireland is part of the EU, so that would mean reintroducing a hard border in Northern Ireland and potentially reigniting the divisions that started the Troubles. The issue was solved by placing the new border in the Irish Sea, but that also spread discontent, for it suggested Northern Ireland belongs more to Ireland than to Britain.
So, is Irish Unification on schedule for 2024? As a casual observer: I think an eventual United Ireland is more likely than not. However, I don't think getting there by the end of 2024 is logistically feasible; there's not even been a unification referendum called at this time. If/when it does happen, it will also surely be accomplished democratically and not by terrorism — barring another unforeseen reset of the political table.
Sorry, "Star Trek," but it looks like you were just a few years too early (and yet too cynical) with this prediction.