The Marvels Heads For $47-52 Million Opening Weekend, A Historic Low For The MCU
For about a decade or so, Marvel Cinematic Universe movies were such a solid bet at the box office that a sequel grossing "only" $644 million was considered a low point. But following the departure of half the original line-up of the Avengers, a flood of Disney+ spin-off shows of mixed quality, the decision to make those shows prerequisite viewing for the movies, and wider warning signs of superhero fatigue among audiences, the MCU isn't the titan it once was. The 33rd movie in the main series, "The Marvels," is on track for the franchise's worst ever opening weekend — lower even than "Black Widow," which debuted in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic and got a streaming release the same day it hit theaters.
Per The Hollywood Reporter, things did not improve for "The Marvels" after a disappointing $6.6 million from Thursday previews. Including those ticket sales, the film grossed just $21.5 million on its official opening day, Friday, and is on track for a $47-52 million opening weekend. That would set a new franchise low, falling short of the $55.4 million grossed by "The Incredible Hulk" in 2008. It's not good news for a movie that reportedly cost $220 million to make.
"The Marvels" currently holds a score of 63% on Rotten Tomatoes — higher than "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" (46%), but lower than "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" (82%) — and a B CinemaScore from audience polling. "Quantumania" scored a $106 million opening weekend but set its own unenviable record when it dropped 69.7% in its second weekend, the worst sophomore crash in MCU history. Only "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" has been spared box office disaster this year, grossing a respectable $845.5 million globally. (It probably helps that you don't need to have watched any Disney+ shows to follow the plot of "Guardians 3.")
Marvel Studios is slowing things down
Though the recent reshuffling of release dates for MCU movies has been blamed on the Hollywood strikes, it also conveniently gives Marvel Studios time to slow down, figure out its future, and — perhaps most importantly — give audiences a break. Previews for "The Marvels" hitting theaters on the same day that the "Loki" season finale landed on Disney+ highlights how nonstop the flood of "content" (a word used 28 times in Disney's latest earnings call) has become. CEO Bob Iger believes that the barrage of Marvel shows on Disney+ has "diluted" the brand, and the plan going forward is to "pull back" and slow down the production of movies and TV shows.
The six-month industry-wide production shutdown caused by the AMPTP's sluggish response to the strikes certainly helped with that. There's now only one Marvel Studios movie releasing next year ("Deadpool 3" on July 26, 2024), compared to three movies this year. The only other film already in the can is "Captain America: Brave New World," which is rumored to have reshoots coming up next year. "Thunderbolts" and "Blade," currently scheduled for 2025, have yet to begin filming.
Spacing out new releases might be enough to get the MCU back on track, simply by making the movies feel more like the events they once were. After all, it's difficult to get excited for the return of Samuel L. Jackson's Nick Fury in "The Marvels" when we just saw him fighting aliens in "Secret Invasion." It would also be nice if every movie wasn't (as "The Marvels" director Nia DaCosta put it) "a sequel to five different things."