The 2023 Box Office Exit Survey: Our Biggest Takeaways From A Wild Year At The Movies
2023 is not just going to be remembered by those who work and cover the entertainment industry for a living; it's going to be written about in history books. Hollywood effectively shut down for more than half the year due to the historic WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. Streaming further cemented itself as the future, but the realities of that future are coming fast and hard. It was also a banner year at the box office for a wide variety of reasons.
There was a time not that long ago when many of us wondered if movie theaters would ever recover in the aftermath of 2020. Fortunately, the domestic box office significantly rebounded this year. Not only that, but it did so with new franchises, adult-focused dramas, and even blockbuster concert films. For those who have been crying about the same old recycled ideas dominating the landscape, this year proved that audiences are ready to show up for something that feels fresh. Audience tastes are changing, and that will have a major impact on 2024 and beyond.
The year left us with much to think about, particularly as 2024's release calendar is very barren, leaving things on uncertain ground. That being the case, we're going to take a look at the biggest lessons learned in a wild year at the box office. From superheroes falling from grace to the summer of Barbenheimer, there is much to discuss. Let's get into it.
The age of absolute superhero dominance is over
For at least 15 years (but closer to 20), superheroes have been the most reliable bread and butter for Hollywood studios. It truly dates back to Sam Raimi's "Spider-Man" shattering box office records in 2002, with 2008's "Iron Man" and the birth of the Marvel Cinematic Universe serving as the point of no return. But as unstoppable as Marvel and DC seemed just a few years ago, 2023 was the year that audiences definitively decided that comic book movies no longer warrant an automatic trip to the theater. The age of presumed superhero dominance is over.
Were there successes this year? You bet. "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3" ($845 million worldwide) and "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" ($690 million worldwide) are amongst the biggest hits of the year. But "Guardians" ranks as the only outright successful live-action superhero film this year, with "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" ($476 million worldwide) collapsing after its promising opening weekend against a backdrop of negative reviews and mixed audience reception. "The Marvels" ($205 million worldwide) now ranks as the lowest-grossing MCU movie to date by a considerable margin and is one of the biggest flops of the year overall.
It's even worse for DC. "Blue Beetle" ($129 million worldwide/$100 million budget), "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" ($133 million worldwide/$125 million budget), and "The Flash" ($270 million worldwide/$200 million budget) all flopped hard at the box office this year. While the jury is still out on "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom," the sequel is not off to a good start by any means. It was a miserable year for this Warner Bros. franchise.
Moving forward, superhero movies are still going to be a part of the equation and yes, some will hit it out of the park. But audiences are no longer eager to purchase a ticket to anything that feels less than essential. The pressure is now on for Marvel and DC to deliver the goods every single time. That's easier said than done.
People still want to go to the movies, they just need a good reason
This particular lesson is building on something that truly goes back to "Spider-Man: No Way Home" shocking the world in late 2021 but, beyond superheroes, this year taught us that audiences are willing (if not downright eager) to return to the movies. They just have to be properly motivated to do so. Nothing proved this more than the duel Barbenheimer phenomenon that took over the pop culture landscape this past summer.
Would Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" succeed? Would Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer" get lost in the flow? Instead, both movies raised one another up and delivered the two biggest movies of the year (ones that are also all but assured to be favorites at the Oscars). "Barbie" now ranks as one of the highest-grossing movies in history and "Oppenheimer," a three-hour, R-rated biopic that is mostly guys talking about science, made nearly $1 billion. Remarkable.
But this lesson was not relegated to these two mega-hits. "Five Nights at Freddy's," despite being available to stream on Peacock, became one of the biggest horror hits of the year, taking in nearly $300 million worldwide. More importantly, it brought out younger viewers en masse, which is something we don't see all that often, or at least not on this scale. Controversy aside, "Sound of Freedom" also reached an underserved audience to the tune of $248 million worldwide.
We can also look at "The Super Mario Bros. Movie" doing more than $1.3 billion worth of business, motivating families around the world to see Nintendo's beloved plumbers on the big screen. The most impressive thing of all? For the first time in decades, the top three movies of the year are not sequels. Audiences want to go to the movies, it's just that they want something more than the same franchises/ideas that Hollywood has been leaning on for far too long. It's time to expand the scope of what is being offered.
Specialty programming to the rescue!
One thing that remains true: Hollywood studios are releasing fewer movies than they did before the pandemic began. Box Office Mojo tallied 910 movies released when the domestic box office hit a record $11.3 billion in 2019. In 2023, the number they have tallied sits at just 584. So we've still got some ground to make up, but part of what has helped to close the gap this year is specialty programming. From faith-based films to concert documentaries and even Japanese animation, we've seen these titles succeed week in and week out.
By far the biggest example of this was "Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour." Distributed directly by AMC Theatres and announced just weeks before it dropped, Swift's film allowed audiences to experience her blockbuster tour affordably — and man did it pay off. It made $250 million worldwide, including a monster $179 million domestically. AMC did something similar with "Renaissance: A Film by Beyonce" ($42 million worldwide) mere weeks later. This is revenue theaters sorely needed due to movies like "The Marvels" underperforming.
But those are just the tip of the iceberg. We can also look at "Godzilla Minus One" and "The Boy and the Heron" vastly overperforming against modest expectations. "Godzilla" has made $40 million and counting, while "Heron" is over $30 million. On the faith-based side, we've got "Sound of Freedom" ($248 million), "Jesus Revolution" ($54 million), and "His Only Son" ($13 million). These are all low-risk/high-reward prospects that helped put butts in seats all year long.
In 2024 and beyond, theater chains and Hollywood studios alike should aspire to build on these sorts of programming offerings to help bring in audiences who might not otherwise bother to go to theaters regularly. Serving underserved audiences (surprise!) is very good for business, it turns out.
Premium experiences are more important than ever
This one very much goes hand-in-hand with giving audiences a good reason to leave the house, but it's becoming more and more true as the pandemic era rolls on. The days of your average, run-of-the-mill movie theater being enough of an attraction for people are getting further away in the rearview mirror. To that end, premium experiences are more important than they've ever been. From large format screens to making something feel like a true event, the whole "going to the movies for the sake of going to the movies" sentiment feels tragically archaic.
IMAX has topped $1 billion this year for the first time since 2019, which signals that audiences are willing to spend the money for the right experience. "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" were big contributors there. There's also the rise of unique formats such as 4DX and ScreenX, as well as Cinemark XD, which is essentially the chain's answer to IMAX. Increasingly, these are the experiences that many audience members are flocking to, even if they do come at a premium.
It all comes down to cultivating a "can't miss it" experience vibe, which "The Eras Tour" did exceptionally well by facilitating that feel of a concert despite being in a movie theater. Granted, this is easier said than done but it's no less true. Even for non-event movies, exhibitors offering cocktails, in-theater dining experiences, and options beyond the traditional soda or popcorn concessions are becoming an expectation rather than something nice to have. All evidence points to the experiential nature of moviegoing being what the industry at large leans on heavily from here on out, even if that makes a trip to the movies more expensive than it already is (for better or worse).
Streaming and theatrical need each other now more than ever
The undeniable truth is that the future of Hollywood is going to be streaming. Cord-cutting is accelerating, and traditional TV is dying a slow death. There is no going back. Media companies are now being forced to reckon with the complicated realities of making streaming profitable. Peacock continues to lose billions, while Warner Bros. Discovery is now licensing movies and TV shows to Netflix and other competitors to get much-needed revenue. As this is all happening, the need for theatrical revenue at these companies has only increased. That makes the uncertain future (AMC is in crippling debt, Cineworld went through bankruptcy) in the exhibition space all the more concerning. Be that as it may, theatrical and streaming are both going to need to survive for the business to find a healthy future.
We're seeing time and time again that movies released in theaters do better on streaming. Period. Even movies that don't perform very well in theaters benefit from that release once they hit VOD/streaming. Case in point, Vudu's top 10 for the year was led by the likes of "Mario," but theatrical disappointments such as "Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves" and "The Flash" also made the cut. Direct-to-streaming increasingly makes less sense. Rather, a theatrical run to help bolster the eventual streaming release is the way to go.
Moreover, we have companies like Apple Studios that are willing to invest in massive-scale films from auteur filmmakers — such as Ridley Scott's "Napoleon” and Martin Scorsese's "Killers of the Flower Moon" — that are getting huge theatrical releases before eventually going to Apple TV+. And it's benefiting both sides! "Napoleon" has made $200 million to date, and "Killers" has made $156 million. That greatly helps to offset the cost of those productions. Rather than dump an expensive movie right to streaming like Netflix typically does, this can be the new future and one that benefits both sides.