Is The Marvels Facing Certain Doom At The Box Office?
The fall season got a little more bare than many in the industry hoped it would be as movies like "Dune: Part Two" vacated 2023 in the hopes of greener pastures in 2024. This was thanks to the strikes that dramatically hindered Hollywood this year. November needs a hero. The question is, can Captain Marvel be that hero? "The Marvels," the latest entry in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, is due to hit theaters next weekend and Brie Larson's Captain Marvel will be leading a brand new superhero team. Unfortunately, the movie's box office prospects are not looking superheroic.
Director Nia DaCosta's "The Marvels" is currently looking at an opening weekend between $72 and $90 million, per The Hollywood Reporter. That's admittedly a pretty broad range but, even on the high end, it would fall well short of 2019's "Captain Marvel," which opened to $153 million. But even that range may not tell the full tale as Box Office Pro is far more pessimistic, giving the film an opening weekend range of $45 million to $62 million. Should that come to pass, it would be nothing shy of disastrous.
Looming large is the fact that the film carries a reported $250 million budget. This is quite a bit higher than the first film, which was made for $160 million en route to a $1.13 billion global total. But the days of MCU films sailing to $1 billion at the box office with relative ease appear to be behind us. The only MCU entry to cross that coveted mark since the pandemic began is "Spider-Man: No Way Home" ($1.9 billion worldwide). "Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness" ($955 million worldwide) did get close though.
No chance of a Captain Marvel repeat
"The Marvels" sees Captain Marvel reclaim her identity from the tyrannical Kree and take revenge on the Supreme Intelligence. Her duties send her to an anomalous wormhole linked to a Kree revolutionary, her powers become entangled with Kamala Khan, aka Ms. Marvel (Iman Vellani), and Carol's estranged niece, who is now astronaut Captain Monica Rambeau (Teyonah Parris). Samuel L. Jackson also returns once again as Nick Fury.
Even if "The Marvels" opens closer to $90 million than $45 million (which admittedly seems incredibly low), it would have next to no shot of matching its predecessor. Granted, "Captain Marvel" was a unique situation. The film overperformed against expectations largely because it came out at the peak of MCU fever just weeks before "Avengers: Endgame" arrived. It felt like essential viewing in the gap between "Infinity War" and "Endgame." That helped push it well past the $1 billion mark.
These movies certainly don't need to make $1 billion to be considered successful, but with a $250 million budget, anything below $600 million worldwide is likely considered a disappointment. Marvel Studios' most recent release, "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3," did very well, taking in $845 million worldwide. But that was the finale of a trilogy that audiences were resoundingly on board for. This is a bit of a different situation. Here, we're introducing a new superhero team at a time when audiences are rejecting a lot of new superheroes. "Eternals," "Black Adam," and "Blue Beetle" all failed to start new franchises, for example.
Only 13 MCU movies to date have opened below $100 million domestically. That number figures to grow to 14 in a matter of days. It looks like "The Marvels" will fall somewhere between "Ant-Man" ($57 million opening/$519 million worldwide) and "Doctor Strange" ($85 million opening/$676 million worldwide).
Several roadblocks to overcome
Word of mouth is going to be key here. Reviews have not dropped yet but as we saw with "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania" earlier this year, that can have a major impact. That film opened to $106 million before falling off a cliff, topping out at just $476 million. Marvel and Disney are also relying on fans more than usual here as Larson and the rest of the cast haven't been able to embark on a press tour, given that the Screen Actors Guild strike is still in effect. That certainly doesn't help matters.
There are several other hurdles that Marvel's latest hast to clear to overcome what feels like a deck stacked against it right now. For one, the title doesn't say "Captain Marvel 2" or have a catchy subtitle. "The Marvels" may not mean a lot to the average, more casual moviegoer. The sequel also doesn't have the benefit of setting up a big event film like "Endgame." It's more or less a standalone adventure. Then there's the fact that Monica Rambeau and Ms. Marvel were set up in "WandaVision" and "Ms. Marvel" on Disney+. Did enough viewers watch those shows to move the needle? Or are viewers who didn't watch those shows going to feel alienated? It's a question that looms large.
An inflated budget. A lack of press. A looming sense of superhero fatigue. It's all adding up to a sense of sky-high expectations that this movie can't possibly live up to. At its very best, this movie is probably going to make what the first "Captain Marvel" was expected to make, which might be twisted to be perceived as a disappointment when it's really not. At worst, it could be another "Quantumania" situation where moviegoers demonstrate that they are no longer automatically in on every MCU movie. From here on out, audiences are probably going to be on a case-by-case basis.
"The Marvels" hits theaters on November 10, 2023.