Will The Mean Girls Musical Be The First Big Box Office Hit Of 2024?
The January 2024 release calendar is pretty barren — even by January standards. Because of the WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes that dragged on for months last year after the AMPTP refused to make a deal in a timely manner, the first chunk of this year is sorely lacking in big theatrical releases. The box office needs a hero to emerge from what is on the calendar to help keep theaters on their feet during this rough patch. Could the new "Mean Girls" musical be that hero? If all goes well, Paramount's new take on the early 2000s classic will indeed give ticket sales a much-needed boost.
"Mean Girls" is currently looking at an opening weekend of $20 million or more. Deadline reports that the film is tracking for a $27 million opening across the four-day Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, which means the estimation includes Monday. Box Office Pro, meanwhile, is bullish on the film's prospects pegging the three-day opening between $20 and $40 million. That is, admittedly, a pretty wide range but even on the low end, an encouraging one. Especially when we consider that it is opening directly against Jason Statham's "The Beekeeper." However, it looks like Cady Heron and Regina George will win the day.
Directed by Samantha Jayne and Arturo Perez Jr., this "Mean Girls" reimagining is taking inspiration from the Broadway musical that was inspired by writer Tina Fey's 2004 film. Fey is once again on board as a writer, producer, and star of the remake. The cast includes Angourie Rice, Reneé Rapp, Bebe Wood, Jenna Fischer, Auliʻi Cravalho, and Tim Meadows, among others.
Much like the original, the film centers on Cady Heron (Rice), a new student who is welcomed into an elite group of popular girls called "The Plastics" ruled by the conniving queen bee Regina George (Rapp). But when Cady makes the misstep of falling for Regina's ex-boyfriend Aaron Samuels (Christopher Briney), she finds herself prey in Regina's crosshairs.
Generational nostalgia working in its favor
Starring Lindsay Lohan and Rachel McAdams, "Mean Girls" was a hit in its day, taking in $130 million worldwide against a very reasonable $17 million budget. Well beyond the box office, it has become a bonafide generational favorite in the 20 years since its original release. It has enjoyed an enduring shelf life in the broad cultural consciousness. That is almost certainly going to help on opening weekend. The original movie was weighted very heavily in favor of domestic audiences. Another lingering question is whether or not this one will have more (or less) appeal overseas.
The big thing from Paramount's perspective is not overspending so they don't doom the film from the outset. Adjusting for inflation, the budget for the original would be around $30 million in today's dollars. My personal hope/expectation is that the studio kept it in that range for the remake. If the budget is anywhere close to that, this movie should be well on its way to being profitable after opening weekend. The movie was originally supposed to be released directly to streaming on Paramount+. Wisely, the studio decided to give it a theatrical release instead.
Curiously, the marketing has largely shied away from the fact that this version is, indeed, a musical. The studio clearly doesn't want to scare away any moviegoers who might not enjoy musicals. That said, both "The Color Purple" and "Wonka" have done well recently, so musical doesn't have to be a bad word. The only real concern is that we'll have too many musicals in theaters at once. Admittedly, this one appears to be going for a slightly different crowd. If all goes well, this is shaping up to be the hit the industry needs right now.
"Mean Girls" hits theaters on January 12, 2024.