This Thanksgiving Could Be A Huge Success (Or Huge Disaster) For The Box Office
This year's Thanksgiving weekend will be packed with new releases, but they just might be chaotic enough to coexist. Historically, the holiday has been one of the high points of the slower fall months at the box office, particularly for family movies. The current record-holder for a Thanksgiving opening is "Frozen," which grossed $67.3 million Friday-to-Sunday and $95.3 million over the full five-day holiday weekend. With the exception of "Creed II," all the other movies in the top 10 are also family films aimed at a younger audience, including "Tangled," "Moana," and "Toy Story 2."
That bodes well for "Trolls Band Together" and "Wish," two of six new wide releases hitting theaters around Thanksgiving 2023, but what about the rest? The grim world of Panem is set to return in dystopian sci-fi "The Hunger Games: The Ballads of Songbirds and Snakes." Michael Fassbender will try to coach the American Samoa soccer team into successfully scoring a goal in Taika Waititi's based-on-a-true-story comedy "Next Goal Wins." Horror director Eli Roth is bringing his trademark love of gore back in the holiday-themed slasher "Thanksgiving." And Joaquin Phoenix is "Napoleon" in Ridley Scott's biopic/war film/twisted love story.
Blood, sweat, tears, and pop music. There's something for just about everyone, and this year has already proven that movies from very different genres can peacefully coexist in a busy box office slate. Things kicked off in January with "Avatar: The Way of Water," "M3GAN," "Puss in Boots: The Last Wish," and "A Man Called Otto" all thriving in their own corners. On the other hand, so many movies releasing so close together could run the risk of cannibalizing each other.
Will 2023's Thanksgiving crop deliver a healthy harvest, or a box office famine? Let's take a look at the contenders.
Wish
"Wish" is an animated movie that was specifically developed as a celebration of the 100 year anniversary of Walt Disney Studios, and combined traditional hand-drawn animation with modern CG animation. It'll be accompanied by a short titled "Once Upon a Studio," which sees characters from the wide history of Disney animation all coming together. And with a release set for Thanksgiving weekend, when families will be out in theaters, "Wish" certainly looks set up for success.
There are a few things working against it, though. First, there's competition from "Trolls Band Together," which releases the previous weekend and is an established franchise. Second, the timing for a celebration of Disney is kind of poor, given that Disney productions are currently shut down due to the writers and actors strike, and also the fact that this summer saw a round of layoffs at the Disney-owned Pixar Animation Studios. Finally, there hasn't been much hype for "Wish" since the trailer debuted, perhaps because the story looks almost painfully generic. The attempt at creating a "classic" Disney movie has resulted in a synopsis that kind of reads like it was generated by ChatGPT:
Walt Disney Animation Studios' "Wish" is an animated musical-comedy welcoming audiences to the magical kingdom of Rosas, where Asha, a sharp-witted idealist, makes a wish so powerful that it is answered by a cosmic force — a little ball of boundless energy called Star. Together, Asha and Star confront a most formidable foe — the ruler of Rosas, King Magnifico — to save her community and prove that when the will of one courageous human connects with the magic of the stars, wondrous things can happen.
Things could turn around if the reviews are strong enough, but right now it seems unlikely that "Wish" will take the top spot.
Trolls Band Together
The "Trolls" movie franchise (based on those ugly little dolls with the gravity-defying hair) hasn't yet hit the heights of other young animated franchises like "Despicable Me" or "The Secret Life of Pets." However, the first movie grossed a very respectable $346.8 million at the worldwide box office, and the second, "Trolls World Tour," played a pivotal role in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was one of the first movies that was originally planned for a theatrical release to pivot to streaming, and as such was something of a canary down the coalmine.
To say that the canary survived would be an understatement. Within three weeks of its digital release, the movie had scored five million rentals and reportedly generated more revenue for Universal Pictures than "Trolls" did in its entire theatrical run. This early success almost certainly informed Disney's decision to release movies like "Soul" and "Luca" directly to Disney+, as well as WarnerMedia's decision to give its entire 2021 movie slate day-and-date releases on HBO Max.
Were those moves a good idea? In hindsight, probably not. But "Trolls World Tour" gave exhausted parents something bright and musical to occupy kids' attention when the lockdowns hit, and "Trolls Band Together" will likely reap the benefits of getting those young fans hooked.
The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes
In a year when non-sequel, non-prequel movies are dominating and audiences seem to be getting kind of weary of franchises and cinematic universes, it will be interesting to see how "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" fares.
On the one hand, it's a prequel to a franchise that concluded only eight years ago — not recently enough to be in anyone's immediate memory, and not long enough ago for the nostalgia cycle to kick in. On the other hand, it's a self-contained story that features only one key character from the original "Hunger Games" saga, and that might actually be to its benefit. The fascination with "The Hunger Games" was centered more around the concept than the characters. "The Ballads of Songbirds and Snakes" delves into the origins of the "fun" version of the games that came about after Panem's government realized that the straightforward, unglamorous spectacle of children fighting to the death was just bumming people out.
The budget for "The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" isn't currently known, but it may be in line with the $160 million cost of "The Hunger Games: Mockingjay — Part 2." This one will probably live or die based on reviews and word of mouth. The prequel novel is certainly a page-turner, and director Francis Lawrence is returning after helming three of the "Hunger Games" movies, so he's experienced in bringing author Suzanne Collins' work to the big screen. "Songbirds and Snakes" is definitely a contender, even if it is facing tough odds.
Next Goal Wins
If we're comparing 2023's Thanksgiving line-up to the start of the year, then "Next Goal Wins" could be the "Man Called Otto" of the late fall season: a feel-good, mid-budget movie centered around a known star. Michael Fassbender doesn't quite have the same pull as Tom Hanks, but he looks like he's having fun in the trailer. Besides, between Greta Gerwig's "Barbie" and Christopher Nolan's "Oppenheimer," directors have demonstrated their own kind of star power this year. Having Taika Waititi behind the camera as co-writer and director, not to mention on-screen in a supporting role, is another selling point for this one.
Waititi has a strong track record with non-franchise films. 2015's "What We Do in the Shadows," while not a huge hit at the box office, gained enough of a fandom to launch a TV series that recently concluded its fifth season. "Hunt for the Wilderpeople," made for just $2.5 million, grossed $23.9 million globally, including $17.5 million just from Australia and New Zealand. "Jojo Rabbit," which opened wide in domestic theaters a few weeks before Thanksgiving in 2019, finished its worldwide run with $90.3 million.
"Next Goal Wins" is a sports drama with an accessible underdog story that's reminiscent of "Cool Runnings." Based on the 2014 documentary of the same name, it tells the tale of Dutch-American soccer coach Thomas Rongen's (Fassbender) efforts to help the notoriously weak soccer team of American Samoa qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. "Next Goal Wins" could get a boost from the recent Apple TV+ phenomenon "Ted Lasso," and the fact that the final season of that show left some fans disappointed could even be a driving factor in itself. If you have an itch for a fish-out-of-water story about a coach leading an underdog team to not-victory, here's a movie that could scratch it for you.
Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving weekend can bring big wins for movies aimed at younger and four-quadrant audiences, but it's a lot less friendly to horror movies. Last year, Luca Guadagnino's cannibal romance "Bones and All" received a wide release on Thanksgiving and grossed just $2.2 million Friday-to-Sunday, ranking in eighth place on the box office charts, and "Resident Evil: Welcome to Raccoon City" didn't fare much better in 2021.
It makes sense. Most families get together for the holidays, and most of those families will have impressionable kids somewhere in the group. Even hardcore horror fans are likely to end up getting dragged to "Trolls Band Together" or one of the other kid-friendly offerings rather than seeing Eli Roth's "Thanksgiving." Based on a mock movie trailer that Roth made for Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez's 2007 team-up "Grindhouse," this slasher promises plenty of gore, but will miss out on the October release window where horror movies are more likely to draw in crowds. Even with a concept specifically targeting the Thanksgiving holiday, this one is likely to rank low.
Napoleon
Speaking of R-rated releases, there is another one on this year's Thanksgiving slate: "Napoleon," director Ridley Scott's account of the French military commander who rose to become an emperor. Following the massive success of "The Martian" in 2015, Scott has had a run of misfortune at the box office, ranging from mild disappointments ("Alien: Covenant") to outright bombs ("The Last Duel"). Nonetheless, the director's name carries enough pedigree that he was able to make "Napoleon" for a budget estimated to be north of $100 billion, and to get the cameras rolling on "Gladiator 2" before "Napoleon" even hit theaters.
Reflecting on the poor box office performance of "The Last Duel" in an interview with The New York Times, Scott said, "You have to be your own decider — if you worry about what the audience is thinking and what they may want, that's fatal." In a way, 2023 has already proved him right: few could have predicted that a three-hour-long, R-rated, partly black-and-white biopic about the father of the atomic bomb would become one of the biggest movies of the year. So for now, let's call "Napoleon" the wild card of 2023's Thanksgiving box office. It could be another bomb, or it could surprise us all.