Taylor Swift Could Deliver This Fall's Barbenheimer At The Box Office
Last week, the movie industry was blindsided by the announcement that a concert film covering Taylor Swift's ongoing hit Eras Tour is headed to theaters. Not in the distant future, mind you, but very soon — as in October 13 soon. It's extremely rare for something so splashy to be announced mere weeks before its release. Be that as it may, "Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour" isn't going to be facing an uphill battle with the surprise release. Rather, this may be the Barbenheimer of the fall moviegoing season.
According to The Hollywood Reporter, people in the exhibition industry currently believe that the concert film — which runs nearly three hours — could open to at least $100 million domestically. Even more insane? A $150 million opening isn't being ruled out. For context, "Barbie" currently holds the distinction of having 2023's biggest opening weekend with $162 million back in July. The fact that a concert film has a shot at even being anywhere near the same ballpark as a movie that has now grossed nearly $1.4 billion worldwide is truly remarkable. But Swift is one of the world's biggest stars, and her fans turn up.
"Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour" would almost instantly become one of the biggest concert films ever. Domestically, Justin Bieber's "Never Say Never" holds the record at $73 million. The film finished with $99 million worldwide. Swift figures to beat that in a single weekend. Globally, Michael Jackson's "This Is It" holds the record with $261 million. Assuming Swift's film also gets a robust international release, that total will be eclipsed in short order. This is not only incredible, but it's shaping up to be a hit the industry could sorely use right now — even if it is one that's going to incur the wrath of Hollywood's biggest studios.
Taylor Swift coming to save the day
AMC Theatres, the largest theater chain in the U.S., is not only showing the much-anticipated concert film, but they are also serving as the distributor. Swift's camp shopped the film around to various studios and was unhappy with the terms being offered. So, they cut a deal with AMC directly, which pissed off the studios who typically handle distribution. In particular, Universal was very unhappy as they had to move "The Exorcist: Believer" off of its perfect Friday the 13th release date, which had been in place for months.
The studios can be mad all they want, but the fact of the matter is the ongoing Writers Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA strikes have effectively shut down the business, with several big movies such as "Kraven the Hunter" and "Dune: Part Two" delayed to 2024 as a result. With that, the fall season had a big hole to fill. Taylor Swift is filling that void.
Much like "Barbie" and "Oppenheimer" saved the summer season after several blockbusters such as "The Flash" and "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" failed to live up to expectations, it appears that Swift's concert film could be the unexpected hit of the fall. With high ticket prices that fans have seemingly been happy to pay and record-breaking pre-sales, it wouldn't be a stretch to imagine this could end up as one of the highest-grossing movies of the year when all's said and done.
Theaters are required to carry the movie for four weeks, so this won't just be a one-weekend-and-done thing. Even if the film collapses after a big opening weekend, it still figures to draw sizable crowds during that month. Very conservatively, we're probably looking at a $300 million worldwide hit — if not much more. Given the reported $20 million budget, all involved stand to make a fortune.
"Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour" concert film is set to hit theaters on October 13, 2023.