The Exorcist: Believer Is A Huge Box Office Gamble For Universal And The Pressure Is On
For the first time in nearly 20 years, a new "Exorcist" movie will be hitting theaters just in time for the Halloween season. "The Exorcist: Believer" is going to be the beginning of a brand new trilogy within the series, which began with director William Friedkin's all-time horror classic in 1973. What's more, it hails from Blumhouse Productions, the most trusted name in studio horror in the modern era, as well as director David Gordon Green, the man behind the recent blockbuster "Halloween" trilogy. But while this might sound like a home run in some ways, Universal Pictures is taking a big, expensive gamble here that it desperately needs to pay off.
Before getting into the bigger behind-the-scenes business driving this movie, let's examine its opening weekend prospects. According to tracking numbers provided by Deadline, "Believer" is currently looking at a debut in the $30 million range at the domestic box office. But that would seem to be on the optimistic side of things. Box Office Pro currently has Green's latest taking in anywhere between $21 and $31 million, which would mean that $30 million would be on the high side. That would also be below the openings of 2018's "Halloween" ($76.2 million), "Halloween Kills" ($50 million), and "Halloween Ends" ($40 million).
Now, as far as the "Exorcist" franchise goes, this would be miles better than anything since the original, which is good news. That said, Universal Pictures is pot-committed here as it shelled out $400 million in a deal with Morgan Creek to make this new trilogy, seemingly predicated on the success that Green had with his "Halloween" films (which, collectively, grossed nearly $500 million globally). Whatever the thinking, spending that kind of money means the studio absolutely needs a big result from this first entry to justify the whole venture.
A big, scary gamble
In fairness, "The Exorcist" is one of the most successful horror films in history, becoming the first film in the genre ever to be nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars before eventually earning $441 million worldwide to date through its various re-releases. But every other film in the series has been critically-panned, a financial letdown, or both. Yes, "The Exorcist III" has its fans but it only made $25 million.
Admittedly, Universal is expecting "Believer" and its sequels to bring a lot of value to its streaming service Peacock. Be that as it may, a $30 million opening — on the optimistic side of things — leaves a long way to go before the studio can call this a win. The key is that audiences need to show up for two more movies as well in the coming years. "The Exorcist: Deceiver" is already scheduled for 2025.
"Believer" centers on Victor Fielding (Leslie Odom, Jr.) whose daughter Angela and her friend Katherine (Olivia Marcum), disappear in the woods, returning three days later with no memory of what happened to them. This unleashes a chain of events that leads him to seek out the only person alive who has witnessed anything like it before: Chris MacNeil. Ellen Burstyn is reprising her role as Chris MacNeil for the first time since the original "Exorcist," which is no small thing.
It certainly doesn't help that this year's Halloween season is crowded. We've got "Saw X" opening this weekend, with "The Nun II" already in theaters, while "Five Nights at Freedy's" is set for later in the month. Not to mention the fact that Taylor Swift's concert documentary already forced "Believer" to move up its release date. There's a reason Jason Blum has called this the riskiest movie Blumhouse has ever made. Will that risk pay off? We'll know soon enough.
"The Exorcist: Believer" terrorizes theaters on October 6, 2023.