Taika Waititi's Next Goal Wins Is 2023's Latest Box Office Bomb
Director Taika Waititi's adaptation of one of the greatest underdog stories in sports is heading for a box office tally that resembles "rags" more than "riches." Maybe the only good news (if you can call it that) is that 2023 has already seen so many high-profile under-performers, from "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny" to "Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania" to "Shazam! Fury of the Gods" to "The Flash" and even "Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning." Premiering on a weekend that featured the debut of "The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes" and a crowded field of movies jockeying for position, the relatively low-budget "Next Goal Wins" and its thud of an opening weekend has flown largely under the radar.
Of course, that's likely one of the biggest reasons why the latest Waititi film failed to gain much traction. In their latest box office report, Variety notes that "Next Goal Wins" only managed to scrape together $2.7 million despite a wide release in well over 2,000 theaters nationwide. With a budget that comes to roughly $14 million total, the Searchlight Pictures film faces a steep uphill climb in its quest to simply break even, let alone make an actual profit. Estimated production costs and marketing demands (not to mention the fact that ticket sales are split between the studio and theaters) mean the movie would've needed to take in around $28-35 million in order to cover its own expenses, which looks increasingly unlikely after such a dismal opening.
Is this a classic case of audiences ignoring anything other than horror movies and (certain) big-budget blockbusters? Could this be a timing issue? Is the film, quite frankly, just plain bad? Or is it a combination of all the above? Let's dig into it.
Back to the drawing board on Next Goal Wins
Is it fair to say that Taika Waititi has lost a bit of his luster lately? Once having flown high on the strength of his early indies ("Eagle vs Shark," "Boy," and "What We Do in the Shadows" hive rise up!) and his subsequent pivot to more mainstream features ("Hunt for the Wilderpeople," "Thor: Ragnarok," and "Jojo Rabbit"), the last few years have not been kind to him between the lukewarm receptions toward both "Thor: Love and Thunder" and now "Next Goal Wins." It remains to be seen whether this is merely a bump in the road. But while the former disappointment has gone through its aggressive post-mortem period, the latter requires some more explanation.
In short, "Next Goal Wins" was likely a victim of several disadvantages working against it. First and foremost, there's the impact of numerous delays. Production originally wrapped back in January 2020, but the pandemic threw a wrench in any plans to release the film before this year. Originally set to debut in April of 2023 and then September, "Next Goal Wins" finally came to theaters this past weekend. That segues nicely to the competition angle, where the release of "Songbirds and Snakes," "Thanksgiving," and "Trolls Band Together" combined with holdovers like "The Marvels" and "Five Nights at Freddy's" to drown out a feel-good dramedy about a sport that, frankly, many American moviegoers don't really care much about. The prospects don't look all that bright moving forward, unfortunately, as both Disney's "Wish" and Ridley Scott's historical epic "Napoleon" are set to gobble up even more theater screens over the Thanksgiving frame. Finally, there's the underwhelming critical consensus and lackluster B+ CinemaScore from audiences.
Added together, "Next Goal Wins" wasn't in a position to shoot its best shot.